What Comes Next?
The Hezbollah guerillas are willing to die for their cause and they are able to hurt Israel with their long range missiles. They will never give up the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped nor will they ever lay down their weapons.
The current war will probably end when Israel creates a 20 km “security zone” within Lebanon and then go into negotiations to free its soldiers. But the danger to Lebanon will come after that.
What will happen next is the break up of the national dialogue and that of Lebanon, the return of the civil war or a pro-Syrian and Iranian take over of Lebanon.
Weapons are in the hands of Hezbollah and their Lebanese and Palestinian allies and in those of the Lebanese army that will break up in case of any sectarian conflict.
Therefore the balance of power within Lebanon is totally in favour of Hezbollah and its allies.
In that respect the free, democratic and prosperous Lebanon that we dreamt about on 14 March 2005 was just that…a dream.
Instead the Islamic Republic of Lebanon will rise...unless both the regimes of Syria and Iran fall or unless a just and lasting peace occurs in the Middle East.